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毛泽东对战争艺术的运用达到了出神入化的境界。“你打你的,我打我的”“你扔你的原子弹,我扔我的手榴弹”。

毛泽东实现以劣胜优秘诀:你扔原子弹 我扔手榴弹

本文摘自:中新网,作者:柴永忠,原题:《军报:霸权主义挑衅中国军人不用财帛赎买和平》

假若墨子再遇公输般

——未来战争制胜机理断想

作为军人,我常想一个问题:当战争的黑云压城之际,我们该如何擎起智慧之剑呢?

我不由想起2400年前的一段典故,中国的古人对此问题似乎给出了一个近乎完美的答案。

战国初年,楚国雇佣发明家公输般,制造了一种攻城利器,恃强意欲攻打宋国。墨子闻讯后,急忙赶往楚国劝楚王罢兵。几番劝阻无效后,墨子解下腰带,围出一座城,拿几块小木板当作工具,与公输般演习攻防。公输般采用一种方法攻城,墨子就用一种方法守城。公输般的九种攻城方式都被墨子的防御武器一一化解了。最后,公输般的进攻武器都已用尽,可墨子的防御武器却还有余。公输般只好认输,楚王见此无奈地放弃了对宋国的进攻。

一场剑拔弩张的战争最终消弭于无形。这就是历史上著名的“解带围城”的故事,此事在《墨子·公输》与《战国策·宋卫策》等典籍中均有记载。

(一)

这则不战而屈人之兵的典故之所以传为千古美谈,恰恰说明它只是历史的个案而非常态,是人类历史上理性击退贪欲的一次光华闪现。否则两位军事“达人”的一次邂逅,也不会被惜墨如金的古人不厌其详地刻录在竹简上,生怕后人忘了老祖宗曾经这么风雅地化解了一场屠城之难。

那历史的常态又是什么呢?5000年斗转星移中,人类经历的有记载的战争就有1。4万多起,累计的和平岁月不足300年。战争造成了36。4亿人丧生,造成的经济损失折合黄金,可以铺成一条宽75公里、厚10米且环绕地球一周的黄金带。仅从1945年第二次世界大战结束到2010年的3100多个星期中,就很难找到没有发生过武装冲突的一个星期。

换句话说,人类是在血水与泪水中泡大的,是从战争中百劫余生、一路蹒跚而来的。照理说,人类应该长长记性,却又为何“后人哀之而不鉴之,亦使后人而复哀后人也”?

人类进入阶级社会之后,战争早就与所谓“人类的暴力交往方式”无关了,而是由敌对双方在经济、政治利益上的对抗性决定的。特别是资本的掠夺本性催生了霸权主义、强权政治,一些民族宗教矛盾也导致地区冲突。这是现代战争持续不断的根源所在。

战争作为政治的继续,从秀孔武、角体力的冷兵器时代,到大兵团、拼钢铁的机械化时代,再到体系搏杀、信息决胜的信息时代,战争与和平的搏击一刻也未停歇,“丛林法则”一步步登堂入室、异化成一些强权国家的“社会达尔文主义”,不知是人类的健忘还是无奈。

作为以护佑和平为天职的中国军人,面对霸权主义的寻衅滋事,我们既不当拘泥古法的“宋襄公”,更不当用财帛赎买和平的宋朝皇帝。能战方可止战。“解带围城”、弹指罢兵的墨子手里的王牌是他早已洞察战争的规律与走向,换句话说,墨子早已熟谙未来战争的制胜机理,并教会他的三百弟子加盟宋国。有硬实力作后盾,是墨子最终说服公输般、楚王回归理智的根本。

历史启示我们,只要战争这种怪物依然逡巡,就一刻不能忘记备战。

打蛇七寸,击敌惰归。备战的命门在“不患敌之不为,而患己所不能为”,在“先为不可胜,而待敌之可胜”。用毛泽东的话来讲就是:准备好了敌人可能不来,准备不好敌人一定会来。

备未来之战,应当先为未来的战争画张脸谱。刘伯承元帅对会打仗的将领有一个描述:夹一个、盯一个,再想一个。即准备当下、推演发展,再绸缪未来。我们不妨把眼光放得更远一些,试想——假若墨子重生于22世纪,为迎战公输般这位老对手,他的锦囊中会放进哪些妙策呢?

(二)

“多维威慑战”。战略威慑的横空出世,很大程度上就是为了遏止战争。墨子“解带围城”的成功,就在于对楚王和公输般实施了有效的威慑。信息的公开透明、人装结合的扎实裕如,再加上正确的人在正确的时间被放在了正确的位置,让对手一旦发动战争将付出难以承受的代价。这种以最小的代价慑心一震,让贪欲警醒,从而实现战略目标的威慑战法,一定还会是制胜未来的方略之一。

20世纪,相互确保摧毁的“核威慑”曾给世界带来半个多世纪的“恐怖和平”。虽说是坐在火山口上,但世界大战在威慑之下毕竟没有打起来。然而这种战略平衡在信息技术的冲刷下,正一天天解体崩塌。“从传感器直达射手”的C4ISKRT系统让战场对占优势一方变得单向透明,被信息网联的体系作战让战争变成了一场昂贵的科技竞赛与综合国力的比拼,信息威慑代替核威慑成为战略平衡新支点。试想在22世纪,这种“代差”威慑一旦形成气候,处于“信息链”底端的国家和军队,将毫无招架之力。

除了陆海空天电等传统物理空间维度的信息威慑,非传统安全的政治、经济、科技、文化等领域的威慑,也无时不在、无处不有。一枚小小芯片,却是未来战争的制胜命门,如果受制于人,战场上基本无胜算可言。我们可以设想,22世纪的墨子只要告诉楚王:您的雄师劲旅用的都是我生产的芯片,我只要启动后门,片刻就可让你的军队变成瞎子聋子。我想不但楚王,就是想一扫六合的秦王也会罢兵。从打钢铁到打芯片,科技在制胜未来作战中的核心地位和作用将愈发突显。

(三)

“信息闪击战”。闪击战是20世纪机械化战场上速度制胜的代表作,在信息深度融合的未来战场,变与不变中,速度仍是赢得胜利的决定要素之一。

美国前防长科恩有句话被广泛引用:过去的战争哲学是大吃小,现在的战争哲学是快吃慢。信息化条件下,作战体系的运行速度空前提高。“发现即摧毁”的“全球快速打击理论”即是这种作战样式的代表。随着信息网络技术的广泛运用,快,正成为体系作战能力建设的关键。海湾战争时,美空军从发现目标到实施打击需要1天,科索沃战争则需2小时,阿富汗战争缩短为19分钟,到伊拉克战争时只需3-5分钟。“首战即决战”“外科手术式打击”已成为常态。

快,还表现为组织力的快。正如信息时代企业的动态重组能力,决定企业的生存与成败一样,基于信息系统的作战体系,面临非线式的作战空间、快节奏的作战行动,已明显向“柔性”“弹性”和重组能力强的一方偏转。拥有体系自适应“进化”能力,将成为赢得战场主动的关键。铁流滚滚的重兵集团模式将成为昨日黄花,取而代之的是按照作战需求灵活组合的模块发展思路。战略行动与战术行动高度融合,指挥体系与单兵平台高度契合。22世纪,也许楚王的军队还未赶到宋国,就已被墨子的超视距精确打击击溃,公输般也可能被墨子派出的“斩首行动”快反分队抓个正着。

(四)

“非对称作战”。有句话耳熟能详:人类以什么方式生产就以什么方式作战。但如果就此得出生产力水平强势的一方一定战胜落后一方的结论,那就大错而特错了。古罗马被蛮族所灭,富甲天下的大宋王朝屡遭金元欺辱可谓明证。

战争不是一种线性游戏,而是充满了偶然性与或然性。物质基础的丰裕,只是为打赢战争提供了可能,而最终赢得战争还得靠一支百折不挠的军队和既契理又契机的战争指导。

毛泽东对战争艺术的运用达到了出神入化的境界。“你打你的,我打我的”“你扔你的原子弹,我扔我的手榴弹”。这一超越时代的高超谋略,让一切弱小民族和国家看到了战胜强敌的希望,也道出了以劣胜优的门匙——主动权!

不按所谓“规矩”出牌、不依敌人的套路打仗,情理之中意料之外,出其不意攻其不备,最大限度地放大自己的“比较优势”,始终牵着敌人的鼻子走。未来战争中非对称作战思想仍将称雄沙场,用于指导装备建设更可能是事半功倍的妙策。现今,失能武器、定向能武器、无人作战兵器等在一些国家正逐步进入作战序列。试想,22世纪的墨子可能掏出的不再是小木板,而可能是撒豆成兵的纳米机器人战士。挥手弹指间,就可能让楚王和公输般血溅七步,就可能潜入所有楚国军人的身体中成为定时炸弹,使战争未开始时就已见胜负高下。

历史在发展,科技在奔跑,战争在激变。22世纪的墨子囊中的妙计也在朝花夕拾间吐故纳新……

美国参联会副主席欧文曾说过这样一句话:若不能准确预测未来,那么现在就可能做出错误而荒谬的决策。尽管时间这位主考官在揭开谜底前,我们对未来战争的一切思考都不可能做到尽善尽美,很多时候不过是一种臆测猜想,但一切智慧与先机的萌发也正起源于这思维深处的一念。

墨子若有知,或许也正在云端之上,为22世纪的那场博弈而苦思冥想吧!

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