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川普发招后 法国英国印度也开始磨刀霍霍(图)

全球减税战已悄然开打?

12月3日,美国参议院以51-49的票数通过了大规模减税法案。如无意外,在参众两院统一版本之后,税改法案将提交给特朗普签署,成为法律,届时美国的企业税将从35%下调至20%。

这次的税改法案有望成为美国三十年来最大规模的减税计划,也有望成为特朗普上任近一年以来,首个立法胜利。

相比之下,中国企业所得税税率为25%,超过全球所有征收企业所得税的126个国家的平均值——23.7%;此外,中国增值税标准税率最高为17%,亦远超实行增值税国家中,15.7%的平均标准税率。

此外还有诸多“费”。目前涉及企业税费的种类超过 10 种,包括附加税费、维护建设费、教育附加费、保障费、防洪费和行政事业性收费等。

去年年底,“玻璃大王”曹德旺公开指出中国制造业综合税负太高,“中国制造业的综合税负比美国高 35%。”

虽然中国对高新技术企业、外资企业都有相应的征收优惠,企业在哪里设厂也不是仅考虑税收一个因素。但美国减税政策或许将是特朗普为推动制造业“回流”美国注入的一剂强心剂。

此外,日本正准备跟随美国减税。据《日本经济新闻》12月5日报道,日本政府讨论将积极加薪和投资的企业所得税税率降至25%左右,但参考美国等国的减税动作,日本有可能进一步扩大幅度。

根据日本的草案显示,积极加薪和投资的企业,以及投资物联网和人工智能、致力于创新技术和提高生产效率的企业将获得更多减税红利,所得税税率将降至20%左右。

而在日本之后,法国、英国、印度等国家也已开始“磨刀霍霍”。

法国和英国计划在2020年前减税,马克龙政府称有意推动建立欧盟统一的税收规则,英国首相梅姨甚至承诺要把英国的企业所得税降到G20(20国集团)最低。全球减税大战警报已经拉响!

在全球产能过剩的时代背景下,作为世界上最有影响力的经济体,美国减税计划是“美国优先”下的反全球化产物,可能会产生溢出效应:国际资本回流美国、全球贸易摩擦上升风险骤升,引起全球竞争性的成本大战。

由此一来,如果不跟,中国可能会从中处于不利地位。

此外,美国税改无异于是在鼓励美国企业将海外留存资金转回国内,这过程必然会中一些资金将被转换成美元,用于资本支出;

这样也就意味着,美联储加息的步伐可能还会继续。

今年以来,美国已经加息三次了,而在本周二(12月12日),美联储将会进行为期两天的利率会议。

受税改及11月非农数据的影响,根据CME Group的Fed Watch工具,美联储联邦基金利率期货走势显示:投资人预计美联储在12月12-13日货币政策会议上加息至1.25-1.50%的机率为90.2%;还有9.8%的可能性加息至1.50-1.75%,而维持利率不变的机率为零。

同样的,为了不被剪羊毛,保证热钱不会流出(外汇储备)。各国,或许也会紧跟其加息步伐。

目前,加拿大、韩国已经紧跟其后了。后续也必然会有更多国家跟随…

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